Kentucky vs Louisville....A Preview

Kentucky vs. Louisville

Lwcat
WT Administrator

Kentucky vs Louisville 12/31/10 NOON-EST/11AM-CST Friday on TV-CBS

Louisville

Location: Louisville
Enrollment: 22,000
Arena: KFC Yumi Center (22,000)

Head Coach: Rick Pitino
Career Record: 572-210 (73.1) 24 Seasons
At UL: 220-86 (71.9%) 9 Seasons

2009-10 Record: 20-13
2009-10 Big East Record: 11-7
2009-10 Postseason: NCAA 0-1

2010-11 Record: 11-1

Louisville 88-Butler 73
Louisville 62 Jackson St. 45
Louisville 106 Chattanooga 65
Louisville 80 Marshall 66
Louisville 92 FIU 55
Louisville 97 South Alabama 70
Louisville 61 San Francisco 35
Louisville 77 UNLV 69
Drexel 52 Louisville 46
Louisville 78 Gardner-Webb 49
Louisville 114 Western Ky. 82
Louisville 104 Morgan St. 74

UL
PPG-83.8
FG%-48.1%
3-PT%-37.5%
FT%-65.9%
APG-18.8
TO’s-14.1
RPG-39.6
SPG-10.7
BPG-6.3

Probable Starting Lineup

Chris Smith F 6’2” Jr…………..8.7
Kyle Kuric F 6’4” Jr……………7.9
Gorgui Dieng C 6’10” Fr…… .5.8
Preston Knowles G 6’1” Sr……..15.2
Peyton Silva G 5’11” So………..11.5

Other Key Players

Terrence Jennings F 6’9” Jr……...9.6
Rakeem Buckles F 6’8” So………8.2

Louisville is off to a surprising start of 11-1 and is ranked 22nd in the nation. The problem is getting a handle on just how good the Cardinals are this season. Their 11-1 record is somewhat deceiving in that UL has played all but one game in their new arena. The Cards have a SOS RPI OF 94 compared to UK’s 23. Most of UL’s opponents have losing records….and their only 2 decent wins are not now ranked….Butler is 9-4 and UNLV 11-2. Still, UL has won many games by huge margins such as defeating Western, Ky. by 32 points at Western.

Whatever fans think of Rick Pitino, he is still a premier coach who frequently gets the most out of his players. Pitino won’t know just how good his team is until they play UK and embark on the Big East schedule. However, he has thus far taken a team without great talent and molded it into a successful fast break pressing team. The results thus far, with the exception of a bad loss to Drexel, have been positive as his previously unranked Cards have now climbed to #22 in AP.

An advantage of a soft schedule has allowed Pitino to have 10 players average 11 minutes PG. His often small quick lineup produces nearly 11 steals PG. However, 6’9” Jennings and 6’8” Buckles often play and give UL good size. The Cards are led in scoring by Knowles and Silva, but 4 other players are averaging 8 plus PPG. Silva leads UL in assists with 59, TO’s at 36 and steals at 28. Buckles, Jennings and Dieng are the leading rebounders.

UL has been red hot from 3 point range the past 2 games…..16-30 against Western, Ky. and an incredible 17-23 against Morgan St……that’s 33-53 for 62%. Overall this season, the Cardinals have made 9.7- 3 point shots PG and averaged 26 perimeter shots. Obviously, the 3 point shot is a very important part of the UL offense. The Cards shoot only 65.9% from the charity line, but Knowles is hitting 86.7% of his free throws.

Mike Marra has been out of the lineup with a bad sprained ankle…..his readiness for the game is unknown at this time, but it is likely doubtful.

Pitino knows the great importance of the UK-UL game and you can bet he will have some surprises up his sleeve. Maybe a change in the lineup or his overall game strategy.
Rick Pitino hates to lose to Cal and he will have UL ready to play extremely hard. And, of course, UL will have home court advantage in their beautiful new arena.


UK
PPG-80.5
FG%-46.4%
3 PT%-41.2%
FT%-68.7%
RPG-41.2
APG-13.3
TO’s-11.0
SPG-5.7
BPG-6.6


UK got the holiday cobwebs off with a nice 91-61 win over Coppin St. The Cats had 5 players in double figures…and handed out 21 assists….hit 13-16 from the FT line….and out rebounded Coppin St. 43-22. Terrence Jones broke out of his mini slump with 18 pts on 9-12. Jones made good decisions by not forcing up bad shots and instead made great moves to the basket. Coach Cal was extremely pleased with Miller’s play….very aggressive in grabbing 6 rebounds…handed out 4 assists…played good defense and scored 7 points. Miller still needs to get more shot opportunities because he is a very good shooter. Knight had another solid game scoring 17 points and handing out 8 assists. Liggins played another great game….10 points…..8 rebounds…..6 assists…..and his usual great defense. It was nice to see Hood get some playing time, but he still struggles in his shooting hitting 2-7 and one basket was a dunk.

Coach Cal used the Coppin St. game to evaluate a UK zone which will likely be needed at various times to protect players in foul trouble. It was obvious that the Cats need to improve their zone defense. I think it’s fair to say that coach Cal will only use a zone when he feels it is an absolute necessity….instead he prefers the hard nose man to man defense. UK’s defense has improved, but it still needs to get better. Cal also experimented with a smaller lineup and it was very successful, however, Coppin St. was not a big team. My guess is that knowing UL often plays smaller quick lineups and presses a lot, Cal wanted to get a good look at UK’s smaller lineup in selected game situations. The small lineup is obviously UK’s best offensive lineup, but against tall teams, defense and rebounding are a likely problem.

The UK-UL game remains a big game for both teams…..the winner gets bragging rights for a year. UK comes into the game with more overall talent, but lacking good depth. UL is playing better than most experts predicted, but the easy schedule muddies the water as to how good the Cards are this season. Look for an aggressive UL team….lots of pressing and looking for lots of perimeter shots. Also, look for Pitino to attempt to get Jones especially and other Cats in foul trouble.

Fortunately, UK is a very good ball handling team and a good shooting team, however, staying out of early foul trouble will be a huge key for a UK win. Having Jones and/or Knight go to the bench early would put the Cats at a big disadvantage.

UK vs UL…,Calipari vs Pitino…,State of Kentucky bragging rights…,both teams will play very aggressive basketball and I hope the refs swallow the whistle and let these teams play. I see a very close game with UK pulling out a 5 point win.! GO CATS!